Predictions

I’m not much of a betting woman. I tend to reserve my opinion for the times I am quite certain to be right. Fortunately for me, that is quite often. (That was a joke.)

I am going to make my predictions on the election anyway, though.

First, my analysis. Based on the buzz I am hearing, if Hinda does not make the 50% threshold on the first round, she will not win. People who like her are ranking her first. People who do not like her enough to rank her first really, really do not like her and will not rank her second, either. I honestly believe that the second place finisher in the first round will win the final vote count (assuming Hinda finishes first).

The problem with my analysis is that it is based on the premise that people are paying attention and the reality is that people do not pay attention. I hope that the fact that this is the first time in 17 years that we will not be able to vote for Clavelle means more people are paying attention.

Now for my prediction. This prediction only considers Miller, Curley, and Kiss. I really do not think we will see much of an impact by the other two. I think Hinda will finish first with 40%. Curley will come in second with 35% and Kiss third with 25%. From what I am hearing, Curley is really popular in the NNE and they have such a huge voter turn out that it can really sway things. In the last election, wards 4 and 7 cast 41% of the city’s votes. The interesting thing about that is they have the lowest number of registered voters out of the seven wards in the city, so it is not that they have more people. It’s just that they care more about voting.

I could be wrong about Kiss’ low numbers, but I think that this election will show the difference between the liberals who really care about the poor as their top priority and the ones who just say they do so they can feel morally superior. The later group will vote for Hinda, the former, for Kiss. I think a lot of the progressive-types are really excited about the wonder that is Hinda Miller. (The legend in her own mind – as one of her former Jogbra associates of 17 years described her in the Free Press article.)

With the second tabulation, I think the Kiss votes will be split between Miller and Curley 65-35, in Curley’s favor. It might be higher in Curley’s favor, but I am trying to be conservative. That would give Curley 51% and Miller 49%.

My prediction is that Curley will win by a hair thanks to IRV. Ahhh, the irony of that would give me more satisfaction than I could ever articulate. In case you don’t understand why, the whole reason for IRV was to make sure no Republican ever got elected again. You see elitist liberals (not all liberals are elitist, so that is not redundant, really) think that they own all of the left-side votes. In other words, Hinda Miller owns the Kiss votes. That is the spoiler argument. The reality is many of the people who are vote Progressive do not like elitist liberals. I do not know anyone who is voting for Kiss and Miller – except maybe Jane Knodell.

Well, we’ll see if I am right, close to right, or way off the mark. Maybe this is all just wishful thinking on my part. Let’s see.