Predictions – Part II

Here are my predictions for the ballot items.

1. SCHOOL BUDGET: This is a hard one to call. It is a big tax increase, but there has been no one speaking out against it. The school board is saying that this is only going to affect your tax rate by $.02 because the rest of the tax rate is set by the state, but this is misleading at best.

The local part of the tax rate is based on above block spending – that is, spending per pupil above the state block grant amount. It is true that Burlington’s above block tax rate will be going up from $0.13 to $0.15, but the fact remains that we will be spending 15-cents/$100 home value above what we would have to if we could keep spending to the block grant level. (That’s $300 on a house valued at $200,000 more just for the above block spending portion.) The block grant from the state is going up from $6,975 to $7,330 per pupil this year. So, the state increase is not enough, the School District needs to go even higher?

Just five years ago (FY02), Burlington spent $6,326 per pupil. This year’s (FY07) budget proposes $8,458 per pupil. That is a 33.7% increase per pupil in just 5 years. Why is that? (And I’ll take, “Things That Make You Go HMMMM…” for $500, Alex.)

In other words, the school board needs to rein in spending. They keep passing the buck (…it’s Bush’s fault...it’s the state’s fault...) the fact is, the buck stops with them – it’s their fault.

Now that I am done ranting about school spending, my prediction is: It will fail in the NNE, but pass citywide, barely.

2. LOCAL OPTION SALES TAX: Will fail, just like last time.

3. ELIMINATING RESIDENCY REQUIREMENT FOR DEPARTMENT HEADS: Pass

4. REVENUE BOND FOR WASTEWATER: Pass

5. STATEWIDE TEACHERS' CONTRACT: Another tough one. I can’t say how many people value local control. I think this might pass.

6. VERMONT AIR NATIONAL GUARD: Fail

7. NEIGHBORHOOD ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS: Pass

8. USE OF STATE EDUCATION FUNDS: Pass

9. FLUORIDATION OF WATER: This one will fail and fluoride will stay for now. There was not enough time for people to get all of the information. Just this morning I read in the North Ave News, in Bill Keogh’s column he said that if you don’t want the fluoride, get a Brita filter. The truth is that fluoride is not filtered by an inexpensive water filter such as Brita. To filter fluoride, you need a much more expensive filtration system. My point being, a lot of misinformation has been spread on this one. I think this issue will stick around and support to stop fluoridation will grow as more people get the facts and more people discuss alternatives and explore the costs of those alternatives.